SHANGHAI: PROVIDING STABILITY TO CENTRAL ASIA?

font-weight:normal">The Chinese city of Shanghai was chosen to be the place
where the anniversary summit of the Shanghai Five country-members was held on
June 14-15, 2001. The main agenda of the meeting was to exchange opinions on
important issues in international politics, discuss the future development of
the relationships between member-countries’ within the framework of the new
Shanghai Organization for Cooperation, and sign a number of documents, one of
which was about Uzbekistan’s accession to the organization.

EN-US">Since April 1996, the presidents of Russia, China, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan
and Tajikistan get together every year to speak about regional and world
problems and find solutions to them. The primary goal of the Shanghai Five
establishment was to enhance security in border areas between the post-Soviet
states and China. The seven thousand kilometers of heavily armed
Chinese-Soviet frontier was often the scene of military clashes between the
two countries. After the break up of the Soviet Union, the border issues
remained a source of potential conflict. Thus the founding fathers of the
organization were hoping to put an end to the tense Sino-Soviet border
relations and direct Sino-CIS relations on a peaceful path.

EN-US">Gradually the organization broadened its spheres of interest from border
security to a wide area of other forms of cooperation. By the end of the 2001
June summit, the six leaders signed a Convention on combating terrorism,
extremism and separatism, and agreed to the establishment of an anti-terrorist
center of the Shanghai Organization for Cooperation in Bishkek along with the
similar unit initiated at the NIS summit. All of the participants expressed
their conviction to deepening and strengthening economic and trade
relationships. Russian President Putin, commenting on the issue, told RIA
Novosti that “it is important to establish strong economic and trade
relationships, which themselves will be guarantors of stability in the
region.”

EN-US">At the 2000 Dushanbe summit five leaders agreed to rename Shanghai Five
to Shanghai Forum, thus not limiting other countries’ entry. Even as Islam
Karimov took part in that summit as an observer, Uzbekistan was still
hesitating about joining. As the Trans-Caspian
Project reports, Tashkent was “maneuvering”, hoping to keep a good
relationship with the US and at the same time ensure its security.
Nevertheless, threatened by Islamic militants, isolationist Tashkent
reconsidered its priorities towards Russia and China and finally joined the
organization, hoping to get security guarantees in return. “Security issues
are the most important. If there is peace in Central Asia, all other questions
will be solved”, were the words of Karimov published by information center Akipress.

EN-US">So far the Shanghai Organization has been pretty successful in regulating
border issues among its members. “Looking back we can state that the
Shanghai Five endured the test of time and developed into a principally new
international legal organization”, according to Kyrgyz President Akaev’s
speech at the summit, quoted by the information center normal">Akipress. Although small portions of disputed territories remain, it
is assumed that the primary goal of the organization’s establishment has
been fulfilled. Leaders put forward new tasks for their future cooperation:
“Beijing will always oppose three evils (terrorism, extremism and
separatism) and collaborate with all countries in this sphere”, Lu Guchan,
Chinese vice foreign minister, told RIA
“Novosti”.

EN-US">Ill-equipped Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are looking up to Russia and China
to support them militarily in fighting Islamic militants. Kazakhstan,
threatened with approaching Islamic extremists and unable to help its
neighbors in repulsing them, is also relying on Moscow’s and Beijing’s
assistance. Moscow, in its turn, is hoping to reestablish its influence in the
region and fill the “security vacuum”, that has appeared after the Soviet
break up. China’s main interest is to prevent the spillover of the “three
evils” into its Muslim Xinjiang province.

EN-US">All member countries are very much interested in preserving stability in
Central Asia. However, it is important to analyze by what means stability will
be maintained. The way it is done now, through threatening people and
imprisoning religious activists, is unlikely bring long term stability and
security. Another way was voiced at the summit: stability 
and security through economic and trade cooperation. It is up to the
leaders to decide what way would be the most efficient. However
poverty-stricken people, disillusioned in improvement of economic conditions, 
are joining Islamic radicals who promise rapid change in ever greater
numbers. It is hard to estimate how big the number of those who have joined
is, or how many people would possibly side with the militants in case of an
incursion. 

Maria
Utyaganova,
student, International Relations Department, American University in
Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek.