A
few days ago, the leader of the “Musavat” opposition party Isa Gambar
called all opposition powers to cooperate and put forward a common candidate
for the next presidential elections that should take place in 2003.

Isa
Gambar’s proposal consist of four points. First, it is necessary to hold a
summit of party leaders in the near future, to discuss the existing public and
political situation in the country, and the duties of the opposition. The
second item is to prepare an opposition-wide agreement on cooperation and
mutual obligations. Then it is necessary to create an operational 
structure consisting of the political parties’ leaders. And finally,
most importantly, the Musavat chairman offers to put forward a common
candidate from the opposition at the next presidential elections. In order to
identify this candidate, Isa Gambar offered to hold preliminary
elections. 

Proposals
to unite the opposition have been voiced in the past. The individual ambitions
of some leaders have been the main problem for the consolidation of the
opposition, some leaders think. Disputes on a common opposition candidate at
earlier occasions became the main apple of discord between Musavat and the
Popular Front Party.

Gambar’s
statement found a s sudden resonance, and the comparatively faded political
situation in the country became more animated. Other opposition parties’
reactions on these proposals were soon to come.

“I
support the idea to put forward a common candidate, but I don’t agree that
we should identify the candidate via preliminary interparty elections”, said
Ilyas Ismailov, chairman of the small “Adalat” party. According to Sardar
Jalaloglu, secretary general of the Democratic Party, the idea to put forward
a common candidate at presidential elections is unrealistic. Jalaloglu noted
that the opposition should first and foremost stand for providing democratic
elections, and hence several candidates should participate. Representatives of
the Union of Azerbaijani Forces,
consisting of “Vahdat”, “Namus” and SDPA (Social-Democratic
Party of Azerbaijan) also declared Gambar’s ideas unacceptable. Ali Kerimli,
leader of reformed branch of the Popular Front Party, also assessed Gambar’s
proposals negatively. 

On
November 2, the Assembly of national democratic forces, consisting of 5
political and 9 public unions of Azerbaijan, conducted a special roundtable to
discuss the proposals on opposition consolidation put forward by the Musavat
leader. Participants in the discussions argued that the proposals were timely.
Most speakers noted the difficulty of separate political parties or leaders
successfully contesting elections. In this regard, they argued that the
unification of the opposition and the achievement of an 
agreement among presidential contenders is inevitable. Assembly members
shared the opinion on the necessity to put forward a common presidential
candidate.

Isa
Gambar seems to keep his optimism in hoping that his ideas will gain
acceptance by the heads of other parties. Such a consolidation is necessary to
counteract thje possibility of a ‘neo-monarchic’ scenario of transfer of
power in Azerbaijan. One form of further discussions could be private meetings
among opposition leaders. Only after these meetings will it be possible to
assess the viability of the proposals, according to Gambar:

‘I
don’t think that it is necessary to accept all the four principles I
proposed. I envisage amendments or changes to my proposals by other leaders. I
regard as the acceptance of one or two of them a success. The first three, the
holding of an opposition summit, signing an agreement of cooperation and
establishing an instantly operating structure, should not cause disputes,
since they should be acceptable to all opposition forces’. yes">   

According
to independent political scientists, Gambar’s proposals are another
propaganda step. Had Musavat desired to turn these ideas into a reality, the
delicate character of these issues required a certain level of preparations
and consultations with the main recipients, i.e. opposition colleagues. The
negative reaction of most other opposition leaders shows the fact that Musavat
did not prepare the ground for its public proposals.   

The
initiative of the Musavat leader could paradoxically lead to new splits in the
opposition camp. This would be confirmed by the preliminary agreement of an
alliance between the reformed wing of the Popular Front Party and the National
Independence Party (AMIP), which is to be signed in the nearest future and
will be open to other parties’ accession. 

Also
it became known that after long discussions, these parties have agreed on a
compromise decision to put forward a common candidate at presidential
elections and to come out with common list of candidates at parliamentary
elections. In sum, the pre-election race in Azerbaijan has begun. Isa Gambar
is scheduled to begin his consultations with party leaders soon. It will be
interesting to see if Gambar is ready to accept another candidate than himself
as the joint opposition candidate.

Gulnara
Ismailova
is a freelance journalist based in Baku, Azerbaijan