CIS LEADERS MEET AT A SUMMIT IN KAZAKHSTAN

Shymbulak,
a placid mountain
resort near the former Kazakh capital Almaty played host to an informal summit
meeting of the presidents of
11 CIS countries on
March 1. High-level meetings of the onetime friends are nothing new. This
time, however, the summit initiated by Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev
was joined by the leaders of Georgia and Armenia, potential hotbeds of armed
conflicts in Caucasia. But it was the Russian president Vladimir Putin who, as
often had been the case before, played the main tune.

On
the whole,
the Shymbulak summit can be seen as nothing more than a part of Russia’s
strenuous
efforts
to
regain control over a
Central
Asia that
is
increasingly
drifting toward
the
U.S.
At the same time,
the last thing Russia wishes to
do is
to act like an “Empire of evil” seeking revenge on Central Asian countries
for its weakening position in the region. To all appearances in this
newly-shaped geopolitical situation,
Russia cannot abandon its time-tested stick and carrot policy in its relations
with CIS countries offering some economic gains in exchange for some political
loyalty.

Russian
president and Eduard Shevarnadze of Georgia used this summit to settle their
controversies over American military presence in Georgia. President
Putin
spoke in an unusually
conciliatory
way, saying that “any nation has the right to ensure its security in a
manner as it thinks fit”. The earlier controversies with Georgia, according
to him, were generated by the fact, that Georgian leaders did not inform
Moscow in
a timely manner “on
what was going on in the country”. In response to this remark,
Shevarnadze said that the
Georgian
side had never kept secret
the
American intention to help Georgia build anti-terrorist forces. Both leaders
tactfully sidestepped questions related to the disputed region
of Abkhazia.

The
only economic issue of
some importance considered
at the summit was the possibility of cooperation in
the gas sector between Russia,
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan  and
Turkmenistan. This
issue,
though
purely
economic at first
glance,
is very
blatantly linked
to Russia’s
policy
to regain its foothold in Central Asia, and if possible, to
strengthen
its geopolitical status in the region. The idea of a
gas
alliance promises economic advantages for everyone,
especially for
gas-extracting Turkmenistan and for Kazakhstan,
which would be used as a transit route to vast European markets and Turkey via
Russia. Uzbekistan and Russia could both benefit, if only the project were
to
be implemented, both as important gas producers and transit countries.

The
leading position in this whole
affair
is understandably allotted to Russia, the main link in the transit route and
the largest investor. Politically speaking, the proceeds from exporting
Central Asian gas through Russia, according to experts,
should considerably exceed the size of the American financial aid offered to
Central Asian nations as a reward for their loyalty. It is not ruled out China,
with its insatiable energy
market,
may
also
join in
the
game in future.
The
project,
estimated at US$18
bln.,
demands
huge investments.
$12
bln.
should
be poured into the development of the Tarim gas field and an
additional
$6 bln. are
needed
for the construction of gas pipelines by Russia’s
Gazprom company.

Of
course,
there is still a long way to go to turn the project into a flourishing and
lucrative
business for the whole of
Central
Asia. What makes experts cautious in their forecasts is that joint
undertakings,
in the realm of the Commonwealth of Independent States,
rarely
brings
desired
ends.

Marat
Yermukanov, Kazakhstan