style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">Another meeting between the
Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Heydar Aliyev and Robert Kocharyan, is scheduled to
take place on August 14 on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border near Sadarak in Nakhchivan, as
reported by the press service of the Azerbaijani president's office. However, there are no
details about negotiations.
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">On 10 August, before his departure
to Nakhchivan, Aliyev said that "Foreign mediators initiated this meeting. The
presidents of the two countries were recommended to hold a new meeting, since the last
such meeting was nine months ago. We will discuss many things".
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">Not counting their meeting at the
November 30, 2001 CIS summit in Moscow, the two Presidents have not met for one-on-one
negotiations since in Paris in January 2001 and in Key-West in April 2001. The OSCE Minsk
Group's co-chairmen held consultations in Vienna on July 25-26, and the two Presidents
personal representatives on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Araz Azimov and Tatul
Markaryan, met in Prague on May 12-15 and on July 29-30, indicating a new momentum leading
up to this meeting.
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">In Prague, views on how to solve the
conflict were exchanged, the current situation was discussed, as were plans for the
nearest future, the possibility to add a series of issues to the next proposal of the OSCE
Minsk Group co-chairmen. Minsk Group co-chairs Rudolf Perina (USA), Hugo Pernet (France)
and Nikolay Gribkov (Russia) participated in the meeting. It was rumored that a possible
meeting of the two heads of state could take place in Turkey, but this turned out to be
unacceptable for President Kocharyan.
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">Strange as it may seem, the OSCE
Minsk Group co-chairmen had no information in advance about the forthcoming meeting of
Azerbaijan and Armenia presidents. Speaking to Baku newspaper "Zerkalo", Grybkov
noted that "At this moment my colleagues from the U.S. and France are on vacation.
Arrangement for this meeting between the two presidents was reached via their personal
channels. But we do want the presidents to reach concrete understandings during this
meeting".
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">The political situation in which the
meeting is taking place is interesting. Both presidents have tried to create a favorable
situation for themselves in these negotiations. From the beginning of this year, Heydar
Aliyev intensively worked on improving Russian-Azerbaijani relations. Agreements were
signed on the Gabala radio station, an earlier point of contention between the two
countries, and on a judicial base for deepening trade and economic relations. Moscow and
Baku have also reached an understanding on the Caspian sea status Moreover, there is an
improved situation in Iranian-Azerbaijani relations. In May this year, a treaty about
friendship and cooperation was signed, which created grounds for improving economic
relations. And Iranian Minister of information and security Ali Yunisi's visit to Baku was
of particular significance.
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">Thus for the first time in the past
decade, Armenia's main regional allies have come closer to Azerbaijan. The war with
Azerbaijan and bad relations with Georgia do not create a favorable background for
successful regional diplomatic activity for Armenia. Azerbaijan, on the contrary, has
concluded a trilateral treaty on security with Georgia and Turkey. In addition, Armenian
diplomacy is less than successful with global power centers. A worsening of
Armenian-American relations has been observed in the past six months. The U.S. is very
displeased with Armenian companies' dealings with Iran in components of nuclear weapons,
received from Russia and Belarus.
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">The last six months forced Armenia
to soften its policy on Turkey, admitting Ankara's role as one of the key players in the
region, and to take into consideration its political presence in the region. As a result,
the political situation at the regional and global levels weaken President Kocharyan's
negotiating position.
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">Experts do not forecast any concrete
results from the Sadarak negotiations. Most likely, this meeting is mainly intended for
international mediators, as a demonstration of activity and an inclination to the peaceful
resolution of the conflict. Former Azerbaijani parliamentarian Jumshud Nuriev recently
stated that Kocharyan needs this meeting more than Aliyev. Armenian Ex-president Levon
Ter-Petrossian more and more actively and persistently proposes to return to the political
arena, with his step-by-step approach to the resolution of the conflict. Former state
advisor Vafa Guluzade was more pessimistically disposed. "While it is very difficult
to foresee what issues will be discussed due to the confidentiality of negotiations, the
possibility of an exchange of territories does not seem possible. I do not expect
significant results from this meeting. We have nothing to discuss. Armenians gave us the
only choice. They declare that Nagorno Karabakh and Lachin already belong to Armenia.
Armenia must leave all occupied Azerbaijani lands and fulfill resolution of UN Security
Council". Former Minster of foreign affairs Political scientist Rasim Musabekov
argued that there cannot be any serious agreements on the threshold of presidential
elections in Azerbaijan and Armenia.
yes"> The two
sides once again try to create an appearance of a continuation of dialogue.
style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">Gulnara Ismailova