CASPIAN SEA: NEW LINE-UP OF FORCES

By Gulnara Ismailova (10/23/2002 issue of the CACI Analyst)

style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">It seems that the issue of the
Caspian Sea status is coming to its logical end. Previous documents never determined
completely the legal status of the Caspian Sea, as they did not contain any provisions on
such important issues as the exploitation of the seabed, the airspace over the sea, and
the preservation of its ecosystem. The attempts to reach consensus among the five littoral
states came to a deadlock first of all due to Iran's demand of 20% of the sea, and due to
the territorial disputes between Iran and Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. The
impasse led Astana and then Baku to make separate agreements with Moscow and each other
through bilateral agreements.

style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">The signing of the bilateral
Russian-Azerbaijani agreement on September 23 "On the delimitation of sectors of the
Caspian seabed" during a two-day official visit of Azerbaijani president Heydar
Aliyev to Moscow was another step in bringing the positions of the sides in the Caspian
issue closer. According to this document, the Caspian Seabed is delimitated between Russia
and Azerbaijan basing on the median line principle, drawn from equidistant points modified
through agreement of the two sides, and also based on common principles of international
law and practice. 

style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">The document states that the
agreement does not prejudice the reaching of a consensus among Caspian countries on the
Sea legal status of the sea, and that the parties consider it as part of an eventual
general agreement. This agreement to some extent accomplished the process of establishing
a triple Caspian alliance. Moscow, Astana and Baku agreed on common approach on working
out new legal status of the Caspian Sea.

style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">Earlier similar agreements were
concluded between Russia and Kazakhstan. With the latest agreement, exploration of the
mineral resources of the central and northern part of the Caspian Sea acquired a solid
foundation in international law.

style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">While commenting on the agreement,
President Aliyev named it as an important step on working out the Caspian sea legal
status. "The positions of Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan comply with international
law and the median line principle and there is no other way to solve this issue", he
said. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, applying the step-by step principle
of dividing the bottom and keeping the surface common will finally lead to a mutually
beneficial solution of the Caspian sea's legal status, taking into account the interests
of all coastal countries.

style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">Just on the day of the agreement's
signing, official Teheran spoke with sharp objection to this document. The president of
Iran Mohammed Khatami declared that Teheran would not accept foreign interference in
Caspian issues, and the agreement regarding delimitation of the sea bottom must be fair
and acceptable to all Caspian countries. "Otherwise it is impossible to reach a
long-term agreement on the Caspian sea," noted Khatami.

style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">According to the press secretary of
Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hamid-Reza Asefi, no bilateral negotiations on the
issue can take place without the consent of all five Caspian countries. "Until the
signing of a multilateral treaty, sides should not conclude bilateral agreements, and
signed documents should not be recognized", according to Asefi. Meanwhile, the
President of Turkmenistan Saparmurat Niyazov made a sensational statement, proposing to
divide Caspian Sea into 4 shares, leaving Iran out. Political scientist Rasim Musabekov,
commenting on this question, noted that Niyazov is afraid to stay alone and hence has to
support the common position of the "Caspian three". The Iranian official Tehran
Times newspaper noted that Teheran has to double its diplomatic efforts in order to
establish relations with Caspian countries. "If in the nearest future Russia succeeds
in concluding a similar bilateral treaty with Turkmenistan, whose position has
significantly changed recently, Iran would find itself in isolation. In turn this would
negatively affect its position on this issue. Hence Iran has to maintain good-neighborly
relations with all Caspian countries".

style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">The Moscow agreement was also
supported by the U.S., who has both economic and political interests in the region.
According to political scientist Vafa Guluzade, the U.S. again confirmed its full devotion
to the position of the "Caspian three" (Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan) in
the dispute with Teheran on the Caspian status issue.

style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">Deputy minister of foreign affairs
of Azerbaijan, Khalaf Khalafov, also informed that Azerbaijani, Kazakhstani and Russian
experts are working out a draft of a trilateral agreement on the delimitation of the
Caspian Seabed. "The three countries after signing relevant bilateral agreements on
the delimitation of the Caspian Seabed feel the need to conclude an agreement regarding
the boundary points of marine borders of the three countries", said Khalafov. style="mso-spacerun: yes"> 

style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">According to observers, henceforth a
de jure triple alliance of Azerbaijan-Russia-Kazakhstan which has determined the priority
assigned by the three countries on solving the Caspian problem. Having determined its
Caspian borders in the north and in the north-east, Azerbaijan has to solve the same
problem with Turkmenistan and Iran.

style="mso-fareast-font-family:"MS Mincho"">Gulnara Ismailova