KAZAKHSTAN AFTER A DECADE OF INDEPENDENCE

The
population of Kazakhstan had a good cause to mark on December 16 the eleventh
year of the independence of the country with an optimistic mood. Many of the
economic and social ills, such as non-payment of wages, the closure of
enterprises, huge arrears of pensions, and unbridled inflation which pestered
the country in the first half of the nineties, now belong to the past. The
prospect looks bright in many areas. The government plans a 6% growth of the
GDP for next year, as well as 12% increases in pensions. According to official
forecasts, the inflation rate will be kept at a low 5,9% in the year 2003.
Despite pessimistic predictions, the national currency, the Tenge, withstood
the test of time. New business opportunities are opening up to make the
population self-sufficient.

Nevertheless,
opponents of the present regime openly question the payoff of the decade-long
reform efforts. According to communists and democrats, the government reports
of spectacular economic and social success boils down to nothing more than
window-dressing. Such words strike a chord with the mood of the impoverished
section of the population. Although the government launched an anti-poverty
campaign two years ago, this belated move failed to alleviate the plight of
people with low income. Many families still barely make ends meet.

For
the promised 12% pension rise, the government will have to disburse $90
million, a considerable sum by Kazakhstan's standards, but by far insufficient
to satisfy the needs of the pensioners. Over the years, Kazakhstan has used
foreign loans to implement ambitious projects in key branches of the national
economy, often at the expense of welfare assistance for those in need. The
country's foreign debts have reached $4 billion. Corruption and red tape among
top officials have become proverbial.

All
this minimizes the political significance of the God sent independence in
peoples' minds. Many people of the old generation have grown nostalgic about
the socialist welfare system and iron-hand discipline. Their constant
lamentations over the destructive nature of Western culture and the loss of
spiritual values of the nation presents a bizarre contrast to the
unprecedented infatuation of the young with Western hits and the English
language. People who are fearful of losing their national identity in this
westernized environment often complain that the capital city, Astana, is
filled with hotels, casinos, snack-bars with English names, and gives the
impression of a Western city, cold and foreign to a Kazakh.

But
a closer look reveals that little has changed since independence. Those who
shape the ideology of the nation and hold key positions in government or big
enterprises are former communist functionaries. Starting from 2001, some
government officials from the business elite have been replaced by prominent
figures from communist and Komsomol ranks. Like under socialism, the officials
try to keep the political zeal of people within bounds.

 The
dominant trend of the official ideology in Kazakhstan presents a curious blend
of internationalism in a multiethnic society and national patriotism. The
communist ideology has been replaced by the newly-invented concept of
Kazakhstani patriotism. Everywhere in the country, cities, villages and
streets are being renamed to eradicate memories of the communist and colonial
past. The new school curriculum allows more time to study national history,
Kazakh and English. A computer with internet connection is no longer a luxury
in schools.

Behind
these signs of the national revival and the growing confidence are deep-rooted
political controversies. For seventy years of communist rule, Kazakhs actually
constituted an ethnic minority in their own land. The industrialization and
the cultivation of vast virgin lands entailed the massive influx of people
from Slavic regions. To implement a truly independent policy the country has,
some analysts state, to restore the ethnic balance by encouraging the return
of ethnic Kazakhs from abroad to the country. Over the past ten years,
according to National Agency of Immigration and Demography, about 500 000
Oralmans (literally "returnees"), ethnic Kazakhs, have been allowed
to settle mainly in the northern and western predominantly Russian-populated
territories.

Despite
its declared independence, Kazakhstan is actually placed under the Russian
sway, both economically and politically. If Moscow sneezes Astana catches
cold. Although the mentoring tone of the northern neighbor irritates Astana,
Kazakhstan will remain the closest ally of Russia in Central Asia for the
foreseeable future. The price to be paid for real independence is higher than
the country can afford.

Marat
Yermukanov, Kazakhstan